By Lisa Brown
SAN FRANCISCO—Will there or won't there be a recession in the next two years? This was the big debate at the National Association of Realtors conference and expo at Moscone Center last week.
In the commercial economic issues and trends forum session, Ken Rosen, chairman of the Berkeley Haas Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, professor emeritus at Berkeley's Haas Center and chairman of Rosen Consulting Group, a real estate market research firm, squared off with Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, with differing views about that question. The session covered commercial market trends, where the economy is heading in 2020 and what this means for commercial real estate.
Rosen began by indicating that the sea change in macroeconomic policy, i.e., the current trade war with China, is having an impact, along with a number of tech companies showing revenue but no profits, manufacturing in decline and many countries in recession. He added that rent control, and the impeachment and election uncertainty are also factors.
“If we're smart, we'll get a truce with China and move on,” Rosen said. “As for the tech companies, many are likely never to make money.” Read more.